Unsurprisingly, this year’s MLB playoff race has gone nothing like analysts and fans predicted back in March as the season was starting. With a crazy offseason highlighting the highest paid player in MLB history, Juan Soto, who headed from the Bronx to Queens to play for the Mets, in addition to some major trades such as Cody Bellinger to the Yankees, Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox, Kyle Tucker to the Cubs, and many more, the experts were in to make some wild predictions. Despite that, we have seen teams underperforming, overperforming, and it all dates back longer than we can mention.
This season for the American League (AL) East started off comfortably. The Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays had good records during the months of April and May. Unfortunately for Yankees fans and the team, an early July collapse gave the Blue Jays first place, which they have held until this point. The division title is now within a game’s reach and we won’t find out who will claim that title until the season is over.
Another team’s collapse to point out would be the Detroit Tigers, who led the AL Central for nearly the whole season, and enjoyed a nice Javier Baez resurgence for half of the year. He and 4 other Tigers would start in the all star game (including starting pitcher Tarik Skubal). Despite the great first half for Baez and the Tigers, the team’s hot streak began running out a couple of weeks into August. They would eventually be overtaken in the division by the Cleveland Guardians in late September. The Guardians success is surprising considering suspension of top closer Emmanuel Clase, but once again, Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan led the team to this turnaround.
The AL West has also had a weird turnaround, as the Astros finally caved to the Mariners, who closely followed them for most of the season. Yordan Alvarez’s early season injury definitely prevented the Astros from getting up to a more comfortable division lead, but that isn’t the only player to blame. Christian Walker, a highly sought after player last season, signed with the Astros and has had a -0.3 bWAR (Baseball Reference’s Wins Above Replacement) this season, and star second baseman Jose Altuve has shown some signs of regression as he gets into the later seasons of his career. The Mariners jumping the underperforming Astros was mostly thanks to MVP candidate Cal Raleigh, who is the first catcher to hit 60 home runs in a season. In addition, closer Andres Muñoz had a 1.47 ERA, and the starting pitching has been very good with Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert leading the charge. There looked like a time where the Rangers were approaching, but a poorly timed Corey Seager injury set the team back out of a playoff spot.
Looking at the National League (NL) East, most preseason predictions favored the Mets, Braves, or Phillies, assuming it was supposed to be contested. Predictors were correct about the Mets and Phillies, as the two alternated between 1st and 2nd in the division for most of the season. Lackluster starting pitching and general inconsistent play has kept the Mets out of first for the whole season, and eventually the playoffs. On a separate note, the Braves have had an extremely disappointing season. This started with the suspension of Jurickson Profar right before the season started for violating the league’s drug policy, as he tested positive for taking steroids. He put up a 3.6 bWAR with the Padres in 2024 and was an all star. Aside from that, many of the Atlanta Braves players have simply not played their best. Former rookie of the year Michael Harris II has the worst qualified OBP, and Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna all had below average OPS stats.
The NL Central has also had some interesting stories this year, as the Cubs led the division for the first half of the year. However, thanks to a random trade between the Brewers and White Sox on June 13, which sent failed (at the time) prospect Andrew Vaughn to the Brewers for Aaron Civale, the Brewers turned the corner. Since then, the Brewers have been the hottest team in baseball, and Vaughn has been a huge part of that. After calling Andrew Vaughn up, the team went on a 23-4 game winning streak. In 60 games, he’s posted a 1.6 bWAR, which is deflated because he doesn’t field well, but makes up for it with an 885 OPS and 145 OPS+.
The division leader title in the NL West has been a tough battle fought between the Dodgers and Padres. While the Dodgers have been cursed with injuries, it hasn’t stopped them from rolling to another 90 win season, and they have been led by Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages, and Freddie Freeman, most notably.
As for the Wild Card race, three teams in the race have locked in playoff spots (Yankees Cubs and Padres). In the American League, it looks like the Red Sox will take second place, and they have had a roller coaster of a season. They had a confusing trade deadline, as there was some speculation that they would sell some players like Jarren Duran, but there was also a false report that they traded for Twins pitcher Joe Ryan, so a potential playoff push was still in the cards. The spark really came when they called up Roman Anthony, and he posted an impressive 3.1 bWAR and 860 OPS+, but a strained oblique has kept him out of play for all of September. The team has missed his presence seeing as they almost lost their playoff spot briefly. The final spot is between the Tigers and Astros, and although the Tigers lead now, their schedule proves difficult, and the Astros could end up with the final spot.
Finally, in the National League, the last spot is up to three teams: The Mets, Reds, and Diamondbacks. The Mets, despite having the largest payroll in MLB history, have struggled with pitching issues, like bullpen pitcher Ryan Helsley most notably, who has a 7.58 ERA in his couple of months with the Mets. Signings of Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes have not been great, and trade target Cedric Mullins has had major hitting struggles since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, the Reds have been led by some great starting pitching, especially from Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo.
So as the season comes to a close and the playoffs begin -fans are left wondering- can the Dodgers repeat? Will the Mets overcome the Reds for the wild card? Can the Yankees finally beat the Red Sox in the postseason? All questions will finally be answered at the end of October- and it should be an exciting finish.